(Photo Credit: Jim Davis - Boston Globe/Getty Images)
The Boston Bruins are currently what no team wants to be - mediocre.
Not talented enough to contend for a championship, and not talentless enough to land a top-five, or even top-ten draft pick.
Back in the summer of 2023 - following the key free agent departures of Tyler Bertuzzi, and Dmitry Orlov, the trading away of Taylor Hall (and Nick Foligno) for cap-alleviation, and the retirements of Patrice Bergeron, and David Krejci - there was a strong case to be made that Boston should have embraced a natural step-back, with an eye towards the future.
After all, what's the ceiling of a team without true, established top-two centers, and no appropriate trade capital, or cap-space to replace the void?
Even with the reigning Jack Adams award-winner, Jim Montgomery, coaching returning core players like Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Jake DeBrusk, Pavel Zacha, Charlie Coyle, Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, Matt Grzelcyk, Brandon Carlo, Linus Ullmark, and Jeremy Swayman - it was evident their ceiling in 2023-2024 was being playoff team, but not a Stanley Cup Contender.
And that's exactly what they were.
Which begs the question.
Why was Boston content on being good, not great? Satisfied with being a playoff team without championship aspirations?
Instead of keeping pending UFA's Jake DeBrusk, Matt Grzelcyk, Danton Heinen, Derek Forbort, James Van Riemsdyk, and Jesper Boqvist at the trade deadline for their own rentals - the Bruins could have optimized those assets, and traded them for returns that would benefit the organization long-term. The Bruins knew that most, if not all of the players listed above, wouldn't be resigning in Boston for one reason or another.
But they didn't to that. Rather, they elected to go with a short-sighted approach, and hold onto said players for a playoff run where Boston was realistically the 10th-12th best team on paper out of the 16 qualifying playoff teams - despite where they ended the season in the standings.
Why?
Well, there's a few reasons.
Bruins' Ownership, from a public relations perspective, wanted to make the playoffs during their Centennial season. Even if from a hockey operations perspective, it would have been best, long-term, to handle their assets as if they may not qualify.
Another reason, was Don Sweeney GM'ing for his individual job security. While selling on a few, inevitably non-returning players at the 2024 trade deadline would have benefited the franchise long-term, it wouldn't have benefitted Sweeney's short-term future. Trading away pending UFAs would have threatened Boston's chances of making the playoffs, and certainly would have made them even less of a playoff threat than they already were, had they still qualified. Selling and potentially missing the playoffs was not a risk Sweeney was willing to take - and honestly, if any fan, or media member was in his position, neither would we. Missing the playoffs, even once, is when GMs become vulnerable of losing their job - especially during the teams' centennial season, with ownership valuing a playoff appearance despite the rosters lack of contender status.
Okay, so that was 2023-2024. What does this mean for 2024-2025?
Well, Cam Neely commented at the Boston Bruins Black and Gold Gala, that Boston is preparing for two paths at this years trade deadline depending on where they are in the standings at the time.
As of Monday morning, January 20th, 2025, - Boston is 6th in the Atlantic Division, 4th in the Eastern Conference Wild Card race, 10th in the Eastern Conference, and 19th in the NHL standings based on points percentage (.532).
Furthermore, Boston is currently ranked 27th in the league in goal differential (-23), 30th in PP% (13.3), 24th in PK% (75.7), 26th in GF/G (2.70), 9th in GA/G (3.17), and 24th in team SV% (.896).
So, while the Bruins are still very much in the Eastern Conference playoff race, their team analytics are consistently in the bottom-third of the league.
Does that sound like a team that should be buying, or selling?
Want to go even further back?
Over the last calendar year, from January 20th, 2024 - January 20th, 2025 (pre-Bruins vs. Sharks at 1:00PM), the Bruins have a record of 42-31-12 in their last 85 regular season games played (just three more games than full season). That's a simplified win, loss record of 42-43, and a .494 W%.
Neely's comments about waiting to see where the team is in the standings come trade deadline time before deciding to buy or retool is understandable. He's taking it one year at a time, while trying to appease ownership with playoff games and tell fans "Just get into the playoffs and you never know!"
Except fans do know. Fans know that the team can't win a Stanley Cup without a true No. 1 center, and additional top-6 scoring talent on the wing.
Management knows it too, but they aren't too willing to possibly sacrifice a down year, or two - and risk their job security - for the long term gain of the organization. Ownership simultaneously, isn't interested in missing the playoffs. So what fans are left with, is a barely mediocre product, being ran by individuals, who for different reasons value today, over tomorrow. Which makes sense if you have a true cup contender, but they don't, and they know it. It really is that simple.
Anyone objectively, and unbiasedly assessing this Bruins team over the last two-seasons knows that they should NOT be buying at this years trade deadline - certainly not a first round draft pick.
Now, I'm not even saying to blow it up, and go full rebuild. All I'm suggesting, is for Boston to not make the same mistake they did in 2024 by holding onto all of their pending FAs for a playoff run they may or may not even qualify for - ESPECIALLY, if it's a pending FA they don't project to be resigning in the summer.
Here are Boston's pending FA's and their current AAV:
Brad Marchand UFA - $6.125M
Trent Frederic UFA - $2.3M
Vinni Lettieri UFA - $775K
Cole Koepke UFA - $775K
Justin Brazeau UFA - $775K
Parker Wotherspoon - $800K
Morgan Geekie RFA - $2M
Oliver Wahlstrom RFA - $1M
John Beecher RFA - $925K
Mason Lohrei RFA - $925K
Boston needs to identify which of these players they want to re-sign, and not re-sign / won't be highest bidder for. RFA's BOS has first offer rights to, but UFAs are free to test the open market in the summer and go to the highest bidder. If there is a player on this list that Boston knows they aren't resigning, then they should be dealt at the deadline, and yes, that includes Marchand. If Marchand is 100% committed to re-signing in Boston for ANOTHER team-friendly contract then great, but short of that? You HAVE to think of what's best for the team long term. But will management do what's best for the team, if it makes their individual job vulnerable? That's the million-dollar question.
With the salary cap expected to rise to $92.5M in 2025-2026, Boston is projected to have around $20M in cap space to try and retain certain FA's and sign others on the market. If the Bruins sell wisely, not recklessly at the 2025 trade deadline - they can still be right back in the mix as early as next season, perhaps even more so.
Boston could hit on some draft picks, spend in free agency, and potentially make some hockey trades that include current players under contract. Brandon Carlo, and Charlie Coyle come to mind as assets who could potentially bring back 1st round picks, high-end prospects, or established NHL caliber players in a return. Teams may find Carlo valuable as a top-four defensive defenseman under contract through 2026-2027. Coyle, who's under contract through 2025-2025, could fill a need for a contending team wanting a high-end third line center.
So, there are options for the Bruins to retool on the fly while remaining competitive, and possibly even improving as soon as next season, and for the long term. But it's going to entail some uncomfortable conversations, personal risk of job security among management personnel, and a willingness to take a few small strides back, in order to take some larger strides forward.
The mix on this Bruins team just isn't it, and the worst thing that management can do for this organization is to hold pat at the trade deadline, and end up either missing the playoffs or getting eliminated in the first round, while potentially losing pending FA's for nothing in the offseason.
It's time for Jeremy, and Charlie Jacobs to take ownership of their team, and make sure that the individuals in charge of hockey operations are looking out for the long-term best interest of the organization, rather than short-term self-interests.
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